Background

Hurricane Experimental Forecast
University of Texas at Austin, Jackson School of Geosciences/TExUS Lab

Simulation output for: July 7 to July 9, 2024, 00 UTC.

Current (5 pm, Jul 7) Analysis:Now both physics/dynamical model and the AI/ML model put the track east of Austin going over Houston wheering eastwards.

Previous (2 pm, Jul 6) Analysis: AI/ML model puts the system east of Austin with modest rainfall (1.5 inches); while the dynamical model still has the system over or west of Austin with rainfall about 5 inches.

Previous Analysis (Jul 5): Hurricane landfall over TX evening of July 7th.

Austin can receive major rains the evening of July 7th through July 8th. Anticipated average rainfall is 5 inches over 5 hours (we will continue to update the).

By midnight on July 8th, the system is expected to be over Central Texas, and the region will continue to receive rainfall for the following 12 hours.

Link to Web application

Experimental Forecasts from UT Austin - Jackson School of Geosciences/ TExUS Lab

This is an experimental/research output as part of model runs for projects through Department of Energy, National Science Foundation, NASA, and a MoA with NOAA - Hurricane Research Division. The model runs are on TACC compute resources at UT. This experimental forecast is not for public advisory or use, or any decision making and is only updated here for the lab and project teams to test the models. No liability is assumed. The official forecasts are available from NOAA/NWS https://www.weather.gov/ewx/ and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

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Experimental HWRFx @UT Runs. Model does not have ocean coupling or data assimilation in these runs.

Graphcast-Operational real time runs (the model is based on AI/ML approaches as run at UT)

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Cumulative Rainfall over Austin from Graphcast-Operational real time runs (the model is based on AI/ML approaches as run at UT)

National Hurricane Center Cone of prediction for Hurricane Beryl
Last updated: 07/05/2024 1:00 PM CDT

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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Cumulative Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) from different models

Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) from different models

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Mean Rainfall over Austin from Experimental HWRFx @UT

Landfall time: Thursday 10 pm to 11:30 pm local time

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Landfall time: Thursday 10 pm to 11:30 pm local time

The model outputs are from UT Austin Jackson School of Geosciences/TExUS Lab. These are based on AI-ML Google Graphcast Operational Runs at UT and hOLAI model from NOAA as part of the UT Austin - NOAA Research Agreement.